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China’s integration into the world economy began decades ago, but its integration into the global financial system is relatively new.
Predicting what the Fed will do in 2016 is likely to be easier than it has been in quite some time.
For markets, the anticipation is the same as the real thing.
The Yellen-era Fed policy framework that utilizes the labor supply argument as a rationale for maintaining extraordinarily accommodative monetary policy is on the wane, albeit slowly.
Although a rate hike is likely by mid-2015, we suggest focusing less on the exact timing of the Fed's first move and focusing more on the speed and magnitude of future hikes.